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Solar PV: Next Decade Outlook Apr 08, 2025

Solar PV: Next Decade Outlook

I. Technology Advancements:

1. Heterojunction (HJT) Dominance

- 27%+ efficiency, 40% cost reduction

- Superior performance in varied conditions

2. Perovskite :

Commercialization

- 25% target efficiency for mass production

- Tandem applications with silicon

3. N-type Cell Transition:

- TOPCon/IBC replacing PERC

- Higher yields, lower degradation

II. Market Shifts

1. Distributed PV Boom

- 30%+ annual residential growth

- Policy-driven expansion

2. Storage Integration

- ¥500B combined market by 2030

- Rising C&I and residential demand

3. Global Expansion

- Key regions: EU, US, MENA, SEA

III. Policy Impacts

1. China's Roadmap

2.

- 1,200 GW target by 2025

- Distributed-first approach

2. Global Support

- Enhanced subsidies worldwide

- Carbon markets boosting ROI

IV. Digital Transformation

1. Smart Grid Integration

- AI-optimized VPP systems

2. Advanced Management

- Digital twin

implementation

- Predictive maintenance solutions

V. Future Landscape

- Challenges:Cost volatility, grid upgrades

- Opportunities:Hydrogen/BIPV synergies



- Outlook:Efficiency gains + policy support driving 10-year growth cycle




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