The building photovoltaic outlet has reached the BIPV market space Mar 25, 2022

The promotion of distributed photovoltaics has promoted the development of building photovoltaic technology. In the past, solar photovoltaics were mainly applied in the northwest region with centralized power plants. With the promotion of photovoltaic projects to the densely populated eastern region, distributed photovoltaics began to play an increasingly important role. Among the distributed photovoltaics, the most important is the building photovoltaic installed on the building, accounting for more than 80%. Among them, BAPV (attached) has a relatively mature technology and more landing projects, which is simple in technology and low in cost; while the more advanced technology path of building photovoltaic is BIPV (Integrated Building Photovoltaic), which combines photovoltaic modules with traditional building materials. Let the photovoltaic power generation system directly undertake the function of building materials. At present, BIPV mainly has two types of technical routes: crystalline silicon type and thin film type. The appearance of crystalline silicon BIPV is similar to BAPV, its performance is stable, and it has been applied in demonstration projects; thin film BIPV has better low light performance and temperature coefficient. , its good light transmission performance can also meet the needs of more types of building applications in the future.


Under the energy transition, the carbon emission reduction function of building photovoltaics has been developed, and the policy has opened up a broad market. In order to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, China actively promotes the development of green industries including building photovoltaics. Given that the current domestic building operation process carbon emissions account for more than 20% of the country's total carbon emissions, building photovoltaics has become an important force in the current energy transformation because it can provide clean building operation energy. Since the "14th Five-Year Plan", the state has launched a series of distributed photovoltaic construction policies including "county promotion". At the same time, the sharp drop in the price of photovoltaic modules in the past ten years has reduced the cost of building photovoltaic construction. Under the dual drive of national policies and market prices, the building photovoltaic market has a promising prospect.


The market space for building photovoltaic roofs is large, and the penetration rate of BIPV roofs is expected to gradually increase. According to estimates, by 2021, the retrofitted roof area of existing buildings in China will be 16.057 billion square meters. Assuming that by 2025, the proportion of residential roof renovation is 1%, and the proportion of industrial and commercial roof renovation is 10%, there will be 1.147 billion square meters of existing buildings. The roof was transformed into a photovoltaic roof. On the other hand, we estimate that by 2025, the retrofitted roof area of new buildings in China will be 1.68 billion square meters, and the actual new photovoltaic roof installation area will be 209 million square meters. It is estimated that by 2025, the cumulative installed area of domestic photovoltaic roofs will reach 1.356 billion square meters, and the installed capacity will reach 237.42GW. From 2021 to 2025, 151.57GW of newly installed capacity will be added, and the CAGR will reach 20.65%. Among them, the installed capacity of BIPV roof is about 28.66GW, accounting for 12% of the total installed capacity of roof, and the penetration rate will gradually increase.


The market space for building photovoltaic facades is small in the short term, and the development of photovoltaic thin film technology is expected to stimulate market potential. In view of the difficulty of building facade renovation and high lighting requirements, the opaque BAPV system is not suitable. After the calculation of different usage scenarios such as residences, industrial and commercial buildings, and public buildings, the investment promotion research estimates that the installation area of photovoltaic facades in domestic buildings will reach 85 million square meters from 2021 to 2025. Due to the demand for lighting, more thin-film photovoltaic technologies will be applied to photovoltaic facades, and the installed power will be lower than that of crystalline silicon photovoltaics. It is estimated that by 2025, the installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic facades will reach 10.63GW. The potential of photovoltaic facades has not been fully stimulated. In the future, with the development of a new generation of photovoltaic thin film technologies such as copper indium gallium selenide and perovskite cells, the conversion efficiency of thin film cells is expected to surpass that of crystalline silicon cells. By then, building photovoltaics will be more widely used in the facade market, stimulating a broader market space.

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